"Although high property prices and tough operating environment could continue to temper the number of home transactions, possible softening in home loan rates, attractive schemes being offered by banks and higher ticket sizes could support a 17-19 per cent growth," Icra said in a report.
According to its estimate, the housing credit outstanding stood at Rs 6,26,100 crore as of the end of the past fiscal and has grown 10 per cent in the first half of this fiscal. In the previous fiscal, the home finance segment had registered a growth of 17 per cent, it said.
The agency further said that factors like lower rise in income levels, high inflation which leaves lower disposable income and high interest rates are other headwinds being faced by realtors in the highly competitive segment.
With a strong talk of a interest rate cut, Icra said such a move will not be good for the housing finance companies as a predominant portion of their books are on floating rates.
Icra estimates that books of home loan companies would grow by 25 per cent per annum over the next five years and put pressure on the recapitalisation of these companies as they would require about Rs 44,000 crore to support their core capital, of which Rs 27,000 crore may be raised from internal accruals and the rest has to come from external sources.
On the asset quality front, it said home finance companies with a gross NPA of 0.77 per cent hold better portfolios than state-run banks whose gross NPA ratio stands at 1.61 per cent.
About market share, it said banks would continue to be a dominant player with a share of 65 per cent even though home finance companies are eating into their share through higher growth numbers.
The top three players in the home loan market, SBI, HDFC and ICICI Bank, command 48 per cent of the market share as of March, 2012, it said.