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India's rating outlook is stable: Moody's

Agencies

Posted: Nov 27, 2012 at 0955 hrs IST
India's rating outlook is stable: Moody's. (Reuters)

Moody's said on Tuesday that the outlook on its Baa3 rating for India is stable, in part due to the country's high savings and investment rates, as debate rages in Delhi over whether the country can avoid credit downgrades from other rating agencies.

In its annual credit analysis on India, which Moody's said does not constitute a rating action, the agency also cited the country's large, diverse economy and strong gross domestic product growth as supportive of the rating.

However, Moody's said: "The rating is constrained by the credit challenges posed by India's poor social and physical infrastructure, high government deficit and debt ratios, recurrent inflationary pressures and an uncertain operating environment."

Last month, Standard & Poor's warned India still faced a one-in-three chance of a credit rating downgrade over the next 24 months, although it said a series of reform steps launched in September had slightly improved the country's prospects.

Fitch also has a negative outlook on India.

Having faced a series of revenue-raising setbacks, the Indian government is grappling with a widening fiscal deficit that threatens to undermine the country's credit standing and possibly trigger a downgrade to junk status.

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has an ambitious target of holding the government's fiscal deficit for 2012/13 at 5.3 percent of gross domestic product, even as sceptical private economists forecast a deficit closer to 6 percent.

India's rating outlook stable, says Moody's

PTI

Moody's today said India rating outlook is stable because of the country's strong economic growth along with high savings and investment rates.

"India's Baa3 rating and stable outlook are supported by credit strengths which include a large, diverse economy, strong GDP growth and savings, and investment rates that exceed emerging market averages," the global rating agency said in its 'Credit Analysis on India' report.

It, however, said the rating is constrained by the credit challenges posed by India's poor social and physical infrastructure, low per capita income, high government deficit and debit ratio.

The rating has also been constrained due to the country's complex regulatory environment and a tendency towards inflation, Moody's added.

The government aims to restrict the fiscal deficit to 5.3 per cent of GDP this fiscal. It has also announced a slew of measures to spur infrastructure development and liberalised foreign direct investment norms.

"However, given the delayed timing and still modest scope of these measure, growth may remain subdued in the near term amid continued domestic political uncertainty and a global slowdown," Moody's added.

The agency said its stable outlook on India's rating is based on "our expectations that India's structural strengths -- a high household savings rate and relatively competitive

private sector -- will ultimately raise the GDP growth rate from around 5.4 per cent in FY 2013 to 6 per cent or higher in FY 2014..."

In October, Standard & Poor's had said that there was one in three likelihood of rating downgrade for India within 24 months if the economic growth prospects dim, its external position deteriorates, its potential climate worsens, or fiscal reforms slow.

Earlier in April, S&P had changed the rating outlook of India from stable to negative, reflecting the possibility of a downgrade.

The Moody's annual report further said India's fiscal position has long been a constraint for rating.

The government's annual deficits tend to be among the highest within the Baa range, and have proven relatively more vulnerable to growth downturns due to elastic revenues and rigid expenditures, it said.

Although absolute debt levels have risen steadily, the government's debt to GDP ratio has been declining over the last few years, it said.

Moody's assessment of low government financial strength is based on its expectation that the government's debt and interest payment burden will remain high relative to its annual revenues over the medium term.

However, Moody's cautions "that unanticipated domestic political turmoil, a further worsening in global growth andfinancial conditions, or a surge in food and other commodity prices could all affect the pace and timing of the recovery".

Last week, Moody's had projected Indian economy to have grown by little more than 5.5 per cent in last quarter, and an initial spike in investor sentiment after recent reforms has faded and the "reality of India's deep-seated structural problems" has begun to set in.

The country's GDP numbers for July-September quarter is scheduled to be announced on November 30.

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